HEPEX 2025 workshop – What happened in Tuscaloosa?

by Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI)

It was great celebrating the 20 years of the community in Tuscaloosa! The HEPEX 2025 workshop left us all with very positive impressions; the workshop was a great success with very interesting contributions and discussions that made both the scientists and practitioners to set new state-of-the-art in ensemble hydrological forecasting for decision-making.

More than 80 onsite participants (and about 40 online) from all around the world gathered in the beautiful city of Tuscaloosa, United States, to elaborate on a set of hydrological forecasting-related topics, including integration of sectoral needs and AI techniques across spatial scales and time horizons. Participants showcased their work in enhancing forecasts through post-processing, data assimilation, evaluation from a user-perspective, while highlighted the developments in impact-based forecasting and warning systems. Throughout the workshop, discussions around priorities and unresolved challenges in hydrological forecasting were discussed. The workshop created a space for advanced research and practical solutions to communicate, while various ideas were exchanged on the essential science and actions needed to advance the field.

In particular, the workshop featured two breakout sessions: one focused on the future direction of HEPEX, and the other on tools, resources, and skill gaps in hydrological forecasting, viewed through the lens of Early Career Scientists.

Moreover, with thanks to the Research Institute Communications of the Alabama Water Institute, Ilias Pechlivanidis, a HEPEX co-chair, was interviewed explaining what HEPEX is and why hydrological ensemble prediction is important. Listen to the podcast on one of these platforms Apple/iTunes, Spotify, Amazon, and iHeart, and don’t forget to subscribe to the Alabama Water Institute to get the next episodes!

On behalf of all HEPEX/EC-HEPEX co-chairs, special thanks go to University of Alabama and CIROH for hosting the event, the organising and scientific committee, and all presenters and participants!!

Next occasion to meet is Vienna for the EGU conference. Follow our recent EGU25 blog, register to the HEPEX dinner (Thursday 1st May) and see you soon!

Below, you can download all presentations and posters, access the Zoom recording links, and browse a selection of photos capturing highlights from the event.

Agenda

All PDFs are stored per day and session and can be downloaded HERE

Day 1: 25th March 2025 (Tuesday)
08.30 – 09.00	Registration
09.00 – 09.10	Welcoming note from The University of Alabama	Hamid Moradkhani
09.10 – 09.20	Welcoming note from the Alabama Water Institute and CIROH	Steven Burian
09.20 – 09.30	Presentation of HEPEX / EC-HEPEX and workshop aims	Ilias Pechlivanidis
Session 1: Meteorological advancements driving hydrological forecasts at different time scales Chair: Andy Wood & EC co-chair: Kristin Raub
09.30 – 09.40	Deep diffusion model-based precipitation ensemble prediction – (Online)	Wentao Li
09.40 – 09.50	Towards seamless rainfall forecasts for flood early warning in fast-responding basins – (Online)	Ruben Imhoff
09.50 – 10.00	Correcting spurious “rain bombs” (localized high rainfall) in ERA5 for improved hydrological simulations	Nikolaos Mastrantonas
10.00 – 10.10	Innovations toward enhanced ensemble streamflow predictions in NOAA’s NextGen framework	Mimi Abel
10.10 – 10.20	Open Discussion
10.20 – 10.30	Presentation of posters (2 minutes each) – Block 1	See list of posters
10.30 – 11.00	Coffee break / Poster display
Session 2: Forecasting at different time scales addressing sectoral needs Chair: Louise Arnal & EC co-chair: Dave Casson
11.00 – 11.30	Keynote talk #1 HEPEX: Meeting the promise and challenges of probabilistic streamflow forecasting	Rob Hartman
11.30 – 11.40	Challenges in operational prediction of high flow events at small basin scales across United States	Felipe Quintero
11.40 – 11.50	Advancing real-time flood and drought forecasting in Germany: Insights from the IFS-mHM modeling system – (Online)	Husain Najafi
11.50 – 12.00	Hydrological forecasting in Central Asia: challenges, experiences and future needs – (Online)	Abror Gafurov
12.00 – 12.10	Improving process understanding/representation in (fast) high resolution distributed hydrological model for forecasting, climate scenarios and digital twin applications	Albrecht Weerts
12.10 – 12.25	Open Discussion
12.25 – 13.30	Group Photo and Lunch
13.30 – 14.45	Shaping the future of HEPEX – Breakout group discussion
14.45 – 15.00	Presentation of posters (2 minutes each) – Block 2	See list of posters
15.00 – 15.30	Coffee break / Poster display
Session 3: Recent advances in impact-based forecasting and system evaluations Chair: Claudia Bertini & EC co-chair: Dipsikha Devi
15.30 – 15.50	Shaping the future of HEPEX – Reporting back from the breakout group discussions
15.50 – 16.00	Real-time use of short-range hydrologic ensemble forecasts in the Eastern US and potential near-term improvements – (Online)	Seann Reed
16.00 – 16.10	A community protocol for short-range streamflow forecast evaluation across CONUS headwater catchments: Examples from the CIROH hydrologic prediction testbed	Josh Sturtevant
16.10 – 16.20	Advancing hydrological forecasting through multi-model evaluation of conceptual functional equivalent models and the national water model	Sifan A. Koriche
16.20 – 16.30	Open Discussion
16.30 – 16.40	Hazard mapping framework: Generating clear and focused alerts while incorporating spatial rainfall uncertainty – (Online)	Tali Horowitz
16.40 – 16.50	Evaluating hydrologic model performance toward advancing the national water model operational forecast within the NextGen framework	Xia Feng
16.50 – 17.00	A data-driven approach for impact-based forecasting and early warnings	Akshay Singhal
17.00 – 17.10	Integrating social and physical aspects for advanced flood impact forecasting: A transdisciplinary and co-production effort	Emixi Valdez
17.10 – 17.20	Open Discussion
17.20 – 19.00	Free time
19.00 – 22.00	Dinner

Day 2: 26th March 2025 (Wednesday)
Session 4: Novelties in probabilistic modelling, prediction, uncertainty quantification and communication Chair: Hamid Moradkhani & EC co-chair: Emixi Valdez
09.00 – 09.10	Probabilistic predictions across large geographical domains	Martyn Clark
09.10 – 09.20	Dynamic combination of a multi-model ensemble for improved streamflow prediction	Cyril Thébault
09.20 – 09.30	Assessing the seasonal forecastability of harmful algal blooms in Lake Champlain	Rakhshinda Bano
09.30 – 09.40	Hydrologic ensemble data assimilation for the Next Generation Water Resource Modeling Framework (NextGen)	Ehsan Foroumandi
09.40 – 09.50	2D probabilistic flood forecasting with Torrent: A Lagrangian rivulet-based approach – (Online)	Brent Daniel
09.50 – 10.00	Using science communication and user-centric strategies to improve hydrologic science dissemination	Lakelyn Taylor
10.00 – 10.15	Open Discussion
10.15 – 10.30	Presentation of posters (2 minutes each) – Block 3	See list of posters
10.30 – 11.00	Coffee break / Poster display
Session 5: Enhancing early warnings and hydro-climate services Chair: Matt Womble and Micha Werner & EC co-chair: Fatemeh Rezaei Aderyani
11.00 – 11.30	Keynote talk #2 Global Efforts to Enhance Hydrologic Forecasting – (Online)	Stefan Uhlenbrook and Hwirin Kim
11.30 – 11.40	Lessons for service delivery: Increasing the utility and accessibility of the National Water Model for capacity limited end users	Kristin Raub
11.40 – 11.50	Improving operational ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the USA with NextGen capabilities	Louise Arnal
11.50 – 12.00	Seasonal streamflow predictions with a fully coupled Global Climate Model	Gabriel Narvaez-Campo
12.00 – 12.10	Decision-timelines: A participatory tool to help understand the decisions users take and value hydrological (ensemble) predictions	Micha Werner
12.10 – 12.20	Strategic innovations in research-to-operations hydrological forecasting: Enhancing value across spatial scales and time horizons	Ilias Pechlivanidis
12.20 – 12.30	Open Discussion
12.30 – 13.30	Lunch
13.30 – 13.40	The integrating prediction of precipitation and hydrology for early actions (InPRHA) project at WWRP WMO and how the HEPEX community can contribute to it – (Online)	Rachel Carr
13.40 – 13.50	20-Year of Global Flash Flood Guidance – lessons learned and way forward.	Theresa Hansen
13.50 – 14.00	Delft-FEWS and HEPEX: Celebrating 20 years of synergy and success	Albrecht Weerts
14.00 – 14.10	A look back into 20 years after introducing ensemble predictions for flood warning	Maria-Helena Ramos
14.10 – 14.20	Advancing hydrological research through the WMO Research Board Task Team on Hydrology Research	Ilias Pechlivanidis
14.20 – 14.30	Open Discussion
14.30 – 18.30	Field visit – Moundville Archeological Park
18.30 – 19.30	Free time
19.30 – 22.00	Dinner

Day 3: 27th March 2025 (Thursday)
Session 6: AI-enhanced hydrological forecasting across time horizons Chair: Ilias Pechlivanidis & EC co-chair: Emma Golub
09.00 – 09.30	Keynote talk #3 ML advances, from theory to applications to operations, improved predictions and understanding our physical world	Jonathan Frame
09.30 – 09.40	Machine-Learning-aided forecasting of drought-related extremes (MaLeFiX) – (Online)	Massimiliano Zappa
09.40 – 09.50	ML-based regionalization for enhanced hydrological modeling in ungauged basins – (Online)	Yiheng Du
09.50 – 10.00	Optimizing regional hydrological forecasting with AI-driven ensemble learning: Lessons from rainfall-runoff modeling – (Online)	Farzad Hosseini
10.00 – 10.10	Exploring hybrid forecasting frameworks for subseasonal low flow predictions in the European Alps – (Online)	Annie Chang
10.10 – 10.25	Open Discussion
10.25 – 10.40	Presentation of posters (2 minutes each) – Block 4	See list of posters
10.40 – 11.10	Coffee break / Poster display
Session 7: Advances in using probabilistic predictions for risk-based decision-making Chair: Nathalie Voisin & EC co-chair: Bahareh Karimidermani
11.10 – 11.20	Using Gradient Boosting Regressor to Quantify the Impact of Snow Water Equivalent on Spring-Summer Water Supply Forecasts in the Western U.S.	Haowen Yue
11.20 – 11.30	AI-based seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe	Claudia Bertini
11.30 – 11.40	Leveraging AI to identify extreme hurricane flood scenarios	Karthik Balaguru
11.40 – 11.50	Enhancing Risk-Based Decision Making and Disaster Preparedness through High-Resolution and Impact-Based Flood Early Warning Systems – (Online)	Husain Najafi
11.50 – 12.00	Open Discussion
12.00 – 12.10	Supporting Forecast Informed Reservoir Operation Studies Through Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcasting (HEFS) – (Online)	Brett Whitin
12.10 – 12.20	Advancements and prospects in probabilistic forecasting: some perspective from CNR – (Online)	Laurie Caillouet
12.20 – 12.30	An Ensemble Hydrological Prediction System for Water Management in the US Pacific Northwest	Andy Wood
12.30 – 12.40	Evaluating a Decade of Progress: Characterizing Improvements in Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Skill in the Western US	Madeline Allen
12.40 – 12.50	Open Discussion
12.50 – 13.05	Presentation of posters (2 minutes each) – Block 5	See list of posters
13.05 – 14.00	Lunch
Session 8: Forecast advances to support reservoir and infrastructure operations Chair: Steven Burian & EC co-chair: Nasrin Fathollahzadeh Attar
14.00 – 14.10	Russian River Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations – (Online)	Chris Delaney
14.10 – 14.20	Enhancing hydrological ensemble forecasting for Uruguay’s electric system simulator – (Online)	Alejandra De Vera
14.20 – 14.30	Synthetic ensemble forecasts: development, operational evaluation, and inter-model comparison for stylized reservoir systems across California	Zach Brodeur
14.30 – 14.40	Advances in developing business cases and value streams for hydro-climate services dedicated to the power grid	Nathalie Voisin
14.40 – 14.50	Hydropower Scheduling Oriented Inflow Forecast Evaluation for Great River Hydro	Cameron Bracken
14.50 – 15.00	Open Discussion
15.00 – 15.30	Coffee break / Poster display
15.30 – 16.30	Early Career Panel: Discussion on tools, resources, and skill gaps in hydrological forecasting
16.30 – 17.00	Closing of the workshop – Ideas for the next HEPEX workshop
17.00 – 19.00	Free time
19.00 – 22.00	Dinner

List of Posters
#	Title	Presenter
Block 1 (Day 1)	Potential of two Statistical Post Processing Techniques in Improving Predictive Skills of Heavy Rainfall – Case Studies over Texas and California	Nasrin Fathollahzadeh Attar
	Optimizing Groundwater Management in Coastal Alabama: A Multi-Objective Approach for Mitigating Seawater Intrusion	Olaoluwa Oluwaniyi
	Predicting Seawater Intrusion in Baldwin County, Alabama: Impact of Storm Surges and Human Activities Using Physical and Machine Learning Models	Hossein Gholizadeh
	Ensemble-Based Forecasting of cyanoHABs: Challenges and Opportunities Using an Integrated Early Warning System in Northeastern Lake Champlain	Panagiotis Oikonomou
Block 2 (Day 1)	Performance of Rain-on-Snow Flood Forecasts from Two Operational Hydrologic Models During the 2022 Montana Floods	Siwei He
	Integrating Operational Forecast Products for Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping in Compound Flood Event	Francisco Gomez
	fimserve: A Python Package for Operational Flood Inundation Mapping across CONtiguous United States	Anupal Baruah
	A Python-Based Automated Framework for Evaluating Flood Inundation Mapping Predictions Across Diverse Benchmark Datasets	Dipsikha Devi
	Toward Robust Evaluations of Flood Inundation Predictions Using Remote Sensing Derived Benchmark Maps	Sagy Cohen
Block 3 (Day 2)	Socio-Hydrological Vulnerability and the Role of Radar Coverage in Flood Risk Management	Mohamed Abdelkader
	Integrating SUMMA and Evolutionary Particle Filter Data Assimilation for Enhanced Streamflow Forecasting	Fatemeh Rezaei Aderyani
	The role of Hyperparameter Optimization in Data Assimilation for Uncertainty-Aware Hydrologic Forecasting	Ali Takallou
	Predicting flow and transport in heterogeneous geological media using fractional calculus: A review and future perspectives	Yong Zhang
	Groundwater Drought Monitoring using Data Assimilation	Parnian Ghaneei
Block 4 (Day 3)	Assessing the effectiveness of flood forecasts and warnings in small, ungauged basins impacted by Hurricane Helene	Katie van Werkhoven
	Decision Calendars and Open FEWS Development to Advance Cold Regions Research to Operations	Dave Casson
	Assessing Water Resource Vulnerability to Human Activity and Climate Change in Alabama’s Gulf Coastal Plain: An Integrated Modeling Study	Md Riad Arefin
	Enhancing hydroclimatic projections in Southern Quebec with multiple hydrological models	Louise Arnal
	Analyzing the June 2024 Flood Event in Northwest Iowa: Challenges and Opportunities for Improved Warning Lead Times	Humberto Vergara
	Using Remote Sensing of Glacial Lake Outburst to Improve Downstream Flood Prediction	Qiuhong Tang
Block 5 (Day 3)	Enhancing Flood Forecasting Using Time Generative Adversarial Network	Ali Sattari
	Coupling Artificial Intelligence Methods to Provide Robust but Flexible Enhancements to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for Extreme Events	Taylor Dixon
	Machine Learning-Based Analysis of Surface Water-Groundwater Interactions and Nitrate Dynamics Under Variable Hydroclimatic Conditions	Bahareh Karimidermani
	Niagara Hydroelectric Production System (NHPS)	Arnejan van Loenen
	A Generative AI Framework for Probabilistic Blending of Multi-source Hydrometeorological Datasets	Nischal Karki
	Understanding the dynamics of hydrologic risk to distributed stormwater infrastructure	Omar Wani