What is HEPEX?

HEPEX is a global community of researchers and practitioners in hydrological ensemble prediction. It brings together people contributing and working on specific topics related to hydrological forecasting and hydrometeorological ensemble prediction.

HEPEX (which stands for Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment) seeks to advance the science and practice of hydrological ensemble prediction and its use in impact- and risk-based decision making. To pursue this objective, HEPEX organises a number of ongoing activities, including:

  • organizing scientific exchange between participants through workshops and sessions or meetings during major science conferences,
  • planning and coordinating community experiments or testbeds,
  • organizing publications on specific topics of interest through special issues in scientific journals,
  • highlighting operational or experimental real-time examples or cases of hydrologic ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) to help practitioners find out about how ensemble prediction is being used around the world for various applications,
  • maintaining online community interaction and HEPS-related resources via this website and other social media channels.

This website is used as an intersection point for HEPEX members – it is a forum for members to share their research, make announcements, report on workshops, projects and meetings, and hear about related research and operational challenges.

HEPEX is open to anyone wishing to contribute to its objectives. Individuals interested in becoming involved in HEPEX can do so through joining the mailing list, participating in activities of interest and contributing with blog posts on new research or accomplishments related to ensemble forecasting. HEPEX is maintained through the volunteer efforts of a small group of co-chairs and topical or regional contacts that identify or respond to new opportunities to keep the community connected.

HEPEX is an unfunded/volunteer effort since 2004.

The HEPEX mission is:

  • To demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble prediction for operational water resources management, risk assessment and emergency management to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, environment, and public health and safety.

Key HEPEX questions related to science and practice include:

  • What are commonalities between meteorological and hydrological ensemble prediction systems, and how can these be coupled or extended to advance forecasting capabilities?
  • How can existing hydrological ensemble prediction systems be developed to best harness prediction skill, while reliably accounting for forecast uncertainty from multiple sources?
  • What is the best way for the user community to make use of ensemble forecasts and to take better decisions based on them?
  • How can the value of ensemble forecasting best be demonstrated to motivate its adoption by forecasting agencies and users?

HEPEX has contributed to the progress in a number of major themes:

  1. Hydrological model inputs and pre-processing or downscaling of forecasts
  2. Ensemble techniques and hydrologic modelling strategies
  3. Hydrologic and hydraulic model data assimilation
  4. Forecast post-processing and multi-modelling approaches
  5. Verification of forecast quality and user-driven evaluation of forecast value
  6. Identification of user needs, forecast communication, visualisation and use in decision making

Visit the site and its blog posts, register to receive updates and contact us to find out more about HEPEX.