A look to the past HEPEX workshop

by Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI)

The HEPEX 2023 workshop left many of us with bittersweet feelings; bitter cause we had to say “goodbye” to many great HEPEXers that travelled from around the world to Norrköping, and sweet cause the workshop was a great success with very interesting contributions  and discussions that made both the scientists and practitioners to set new state-of-the-art in hydrological forecasting for decision-making.

HEPEX workshop 2023 – Group photo


More than 60 onsite participants (and about 45 online) from more than 20 countries gathered in the small city of Norrköping, Sweden to elaborate on a set of hydrological forecasting-related topics, including integration of sectoral needs and AI techniques across spatial scales and time horizons. Participants showcased their work in enhancing forecasts through post-processing, data assimilation, evaluation from a user-perspective, while highlighted the developments in impact-based forecasting and warning systems. Throughout the workshop, discussions around priorities and unresolved challenges in hydrological forecasting were discussed. The workshop created a space for advanced research and practical solutions to communicate, while various ideas were exchanged on the essential science and actions needed to advance the field. 

Below you are able to download all presentations and posters, and see some of the nice photos taken during the event.

On behalf of all HEPEX/EC-HEPEX co-chairs, special thanks go to Energiforsk for sponsoring the event, the organising and scientific committee, and all presenters and participants!!

In 2024 our HEPEX community celebrates its 20 years. Stay tuned for exciting surprises!


Agenda (including the PDFs of the presentations)

Day 1: 13th September 2023 (Wednesday)
13.00 – 13.30 Registration
13.30 – 13.40 Welcoming note from SMHI Ilias Pechlivanidis
13.40 – 13.50 Presentation of HEPEX / EC-HEPEX and workshop aims – PDF Marie-Amélie Boucher
Session 1: Forecasting at different time scales addressing sectoral needsChair: James Bennett
13.50 – 14.20 Keynote talk #1Energiforsk – Coordinating the hydropower industry’s hydrological research needs – PDF Emma Hagner
14.20 – 14.30 Trends and uncertainty in long inflow predictions for hydropower management – PDF David Horsley
14.30 – 14.40 A continental US testbed for basin-scale S2S climate predictions supporting water management – PDF Andy Wood
14.40 – 14.50 Evaluation of continental-scale ensemble hydrological forecasts from environment and climate change Canada: A comparison with forecasts from the global flood awareness system (GloFAS) (Online) – PDF Étienne Gaborit
14.50 – 15.00 Open Discussion James Bennett
15.00 – 15.30 Presentation of posters (90 seconds each) See list of posters
15.30 – 16.10 Coffee break / Poster display / Group photo
Session 2: AI-enhanced hydrological forecasting across time horizonsChair: Ilias Pechlivanidis
16.10 – 16.20 Enhancing tropical cyclone rainfall forecasts for anticipatory humanitarian action using machine learning – PDF Andrea Ficchì
16.20 – 16.30 A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting over North America (Online) – PDF Louise Arnal
16.30 – 16.40 Enhancing seasonal hydrological forecasting via local data integration and machine learning – PDF Yiheng Du
16.40 – 16.50 Open Discussion Ilias Pechlivanidis
16.50 – 17.00 A hybrid multi-basin ML flood model driven with seasonal climate forecasts from C3S – PDF Simon Moulds
17.00 – 17.10 Improving the performance of hydrological model forecast using a time-varying multivariate ENKF assimilation – PDF Visweshwaran Ramesh
17.10 – 17.20 The role of earth observations and in situ data assimilation in seasonal hydrological forecasting – PDF Jude L. Musuuza
17.20 – 17.30 Open Discussion Ilias Pechlivanidis
17.30 – 19.00 Free timeOptional: Visit to SMHI (Group 1) – 20’ / Frisbee – 60’ / Table tennis – 60’
19.00 – 22.00 Dinner


Day 2: 14th September 2023 (Thursday)
Session 3: Meteorological advancements driving hydrological forecasts at different time scalesChair: Fredrik Wetterhall
09.00 – 09.10 Challenges of operational weather forecast verification(Online) – PDF Thomas C. Pagano
09.10 – 09.20 Enhancing NMME precipitation forecast accuracy using SM2RAIN-Climate: A case study over Europe – PDF Hamidreza Mosaffa
09.20 – 09.30 Spatial mode-based calibration (SMOC) of forecast precipitation fields from NWP models (Online) – PDF Pengcheng Zhao
09.30 – 09.40 Allowing human expertise on meteorological ensemble forecasts (Online) – PDF Théo Mesure
09.40 – 09.50 Open Discussion Fredrik Wetterhall
09.50 – 10.00 Short term drought prediction based on stable states between the land and the atmosphere – PDF Joshua K. Roundy
10.00 – 10.10 An evaluation of subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts at different time scales (Online) – PDF Wentao Li
10.10 – 10.20 Enhancing sub-seasonal hydrological drought predictions in the European Alpine space using EFAS forecasts – PDF Annie Y.-Y. Chang
10.20 – 10.30 Open Discussion Fredrik Wetterhall
10.30 – 11.00 Coffee break / Poster display
Session 4: Recent advances in impact-based forecasting and system evaluationsChair: Louise Slater
11.00 – 11.30 Keynote talk #2Forecasting socio-hydrological extremes – PDF Giuliano Di Baldassarre
11.30 – 11.40 Impact-based flood warnings in Sweden using a flood inundation map library approach – PDF Nina Bosshard
11.40 – 11.50 Long range impact-based forecasts for agricultural drought early warning in Australia – PDF Andrew Schepen
11.50 – 12.00 Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts – PDF Anastasiya Shyrokaya
12.00 – 12.10 Mediterranean and pan-European forecast and early warning systems against natural hazards: A contribution to the early warnings for all (EW4ALL) initiative – PDF Jürg Luterbacher
12.10 – 12.20 Open Discussion Louise Slater
12.20 – 12.30 A user centered design approach to co-develop a decision support systems for impact-based flood warnings to improve local flood preparedness – PDF Trine J Hegdahl
12.30 – 12.40 Evaluation of a real-time regional ensemble flow forecasting system in Catalonia of a 2-year term – PDF Xinyu Li
12.40 – 12.50 A skill analysis of the European flood awareness system (Online) – PDF Jesus Casado Rodriguez
12.50 – 13.00 Open Discussion Louise Slater
13.00 – 14.00 Lunch
14.00 – 15.30 Breakout group discussions (4 groups)Which are HEPEX’s top 5 priorities for (co-)creating forecast systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons?
15.30 – 16.00 Coffee break / Poster display
Session 5: Novelties in modelling, predicting and communicating extreme flood eventsChair: Andy Wood
16.00 – 16.30 Reporting back from the breakout group discussions
16.30 – 16.40 The Iowa flood center real-time streamflow forecasting system – PDF Felipe Quintero
16.40 – 16.50 SONICS: a novel in-house development system for detection and forecasting potential river floods in Peru (Online) – PDF Harold Llauca
16.50 – 17.00 Regional scale forecasting for surface water floods – PDF Linda Speight
17.00 – 17.10 FLOODGAN 2.0: Dynamic pluvial flood forecasting using deep learning (Online) – PDF Julian Hofmann
17.10 – 17.20 Communicating probabilistic flood forecasts maps to different user groups – PDF Marie-Amélie Boucher
17.20 – 17.30 Open Discussion Andy Wood
17.30 – 18.00 Keynote talk #3The rise of machine learning in forecasting – HEPEXAI? – PDF Florian Pappenberger
18.00 – 19.00 Free time
19.00 – 22.00 Dinner


Day 3: 15th September 2023 (Friday)
Session 6: Enhancing early warnings and hydro-climate servicesChair: Maria-Helena Ramos
09.00 – 09.10 Trended climatology for seasonal streamflow forecasts (Online) – PDF Tristan D. J. Graham
09.10 – 09.20 Testing a Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to bias correct sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts for drought risk management in Spain – PDF Celia Ramos Sánchez
09.20 – 09.30 Efficient and precise flood inundation predictions using the LSG model (Online) – PDF Niels Fraehr
09.30 – 09.40 Open Discussion Maria-Helena Ramos
09.40 – 09.50 A brief history of co-creating and the integration of local knowledges, data and needs in climate services – PDF Micha Werner
09.50 – 10.00 Advancing drinking water management with hydro-climate services: the co-generation success story of SMHI Aqua – PDF Carolina Cantone
10.00 – 10.10 Delivering better forecasts: co-developing hydrological status and outlooks systems for increased water security – PDF Katie Facer-Childs
10.10 – 10.20 Jointly verifying and evaluating seasonal forecasts from climate services: experience from the H2020 CLARA project – PDF Louise Crochemore
10.20 – 10.30 Open Discussion Maria-Helena Ramos
10.30 – 11.00 Coffee break / Poster display
11.00 – 11.30 Keynote talk #4Progress and perspectives in hydrometeorological modelling and forecasting – PDF Antara Dasgupta
11.30 – 12.30 Navigating Future Water Challenges: An early-career panel discussion Early Career (EC-)HEPEX
12.30 – 12.45 Closing – Wrapping up Ilias Pechlivanidis
12.45 – 14.00 Lunch / Visit to SMHI (Group 2)
End of workshop


List of Posters

# Title First author
1 Developing the post-processing of the European flood awareness system’s forecasts – PDF Gwyneth Matthews
2 Evaluation of multi-basin hydrological models in terms of quantile extremes – PDF Yiheng Du
3 Connections between electricity production and climate variability in Europe: A spatial and temporal analysis – PDF Dong An
4 Improving GloFAS rapid inundation mapping products through satellite data assimilation – PDF Antara Dasgupta
5 Making better forecasts: Developing and applying advances in statistical streamflow forecasting techniques across scales – PDF Katie Facer-Childs
6 Sub-seasonal forecasting of shallow groundwater levels in Switzerland – PDF Raoul Collenteur
7 Availability of solar, wind and hydropower across Europe – PDF Anders Wörman
8 Hydro Tasmania’s short- to long-range ensemble inflows prediction (SLEIP) system – PDF James C. Bennett
9 Basis for a flood warning system in a fast-flow mediterranean catchment – PDF Rafael Pimentel
10 The hydropower industry’s hydrological development programme – HUVA – PDF Emma Hagner
11 Continuous verification to improve forecasters forecasting skill – PDF Maarten Smoorenburg


Selected photos

Former and current HEPEX co-chairs: Andy Wood (NCAR, US), Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF, UK), Maria-Helena Ramos (INRAE, France), Fredrik Wetterhall (ECMWF, UK), Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI, Sweden), Marie-Amélie Boucher (Uni. of Usherbrooke, Canada) and James Bennett (CSIRO, Australia)

Early career panel discussion (from left to right: Louise Crochemore, Yiheng Du, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Andrea Ficchí, Beatriz Quesada Montano, and Simon Moulds)

Thanking Andy Wood (NCAR) for his contribution to HEPEX

Breakout discussion (group 1) on the priorities for (co-)creating forecast systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons

Breakout discussion (group 2) on the priorities for (co-)creating forecast systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons

Giuliano Di Baldassarre keynote presentation on forecasting socio-hydrological extremes

Florian Pappenberger keynote presentation on the rise of machine-learning in forecasting

Antara Dasgupta keynote presentation highlighting the progress and perspectives in hydrometeorological modelling and forecasting


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