6th HEPEX webinar: The positive value of displaying forecast uncertainty
Summer is here, but HEPEX webinar does not go on Summer holidays just yet:
Date and time: Tuesday, July 16, 2013 9:30 am GMT Summer Time (London, GMT+01:00)
Speaker: Anders Persson
Abstract: The meteorological and hydrological communities are working out methods to estimate the forecast uncertainty. The results are increasingly positive, but the culture in both communities still feel a certain uneasiness about making use of the information, in particular externally. The idea still seems to be that to appear very confident will promote the customers’ confidence in the forecasts and forecasters.
However, the result is often the opposite. Not only that very confident forecasts turn out to be utterly wrong, equally disturbing for the resputation of the forecasters is when the forecasts drastically change from one computer run to the next.
The seminar will try, once agian, to press home the message, not only the point that communicating the uncertainty will increase the value of the forecast service, it will also argue that, skilfully done, this will greatly enhance the reputation of the forecasters in the eyes of the customers.
About the speaker: Anders has over 40 years of experience in forecasting and has worked as research meteorologists at ECMWF, SMHI and UK Metoffice. Even though a meteorologists by training, he became acquainted with hydrological forecasting when he assisted in the setting up of such a service at SMHI.