HEPEX Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting Workshop
Workshop participants – Visit the HEPEX Photo Gallery to see this and other photos from previous workshops
WORKSHOP AGENDA
Visit to SMHI: There are two 1-h slots in the agenda dedicated to a tour visit of SMHI. Henrik Spångmyr will guide the two groups. He will give a 30′ presentation about the SMHI forecasting system, 10′ for questions, and then a 15-20′ tour. You may register to the visit on the first day of the workshop.
21 September 2015 (Monday)
| 8.30- 9.00 | Registration | |
| 9.00- 9.10 | Welcoming note from SMHI (PDF) (PDF) | Ilias Pechlivanidis Berit Arheimer |
| 9.10- 9.20 | Presentation of HEPEX and workshop aims (see general info about HEPEX here) | Fredrik Wetterhall |
| Session 1: User needs, communication and decision making Chairperson: Ilias Pechlivanidis |
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| 9.20- 9.50 | Keynote talk: Processing weather forecasts for hydrological ensemble forecasting and decision making in hydropower (PDF) | Erik Tjøtta |
| 9.50- 10.10 | Local-scale early warnings for drought can they increase community resilience? (PDF) | Lotta Andersson |
| 10.10- 10.30 | Poster short-introductions | |
| 10.30 – 11.00: Coffee break / Poster display | ||
| Session 2: Climate and water services using seasonal forecasts Chairperson: Fredrik Wetterhall |
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| 11.00- 11.20 | Linking seasonal forecasts to user needs in the Limpopo basin in southern Africa (PDF) | Micha Werner |
| 11.20- 11.40 | Towards a seasonal forecasting service for the German waterways – Requirements, approaches and potential products (PDF) | Dennis Meissner |
| 11.40- 12.15 | Discussion | |
| 12:15 – 12:30: Group Photo |
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| 12:30 – 13:30: Lunch | ||
| Session 3: Towards operational monthly to seasonal forecasting systems Chairperson: Micha Werner |
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| 13.30- 14.00 | Keynote talk: Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational river flow and groundwater level forecast at monthly to seasonal scale (PDF) | Christel Prudhomme |
| 14.00- 14.20 | Evaluation of a multi-model seasonal hydrological forecast prototype for the spring flood period in Sweden (PDF) | Kean Foster |
| 14.20- 14.40 | A seasonal low-flow forecasting and water management system to support reservoir management under multiple water uses (PDF) | Louise Crochemore |
| 14.40- 15.00 | Seasonal and short-term forecasting in the Upper Maule basin, Chile | Roar Jensen |
| 15.00 – 15.30: Coffee break / Poster display | ||
| 15.30 – 17.00: Workgroup/discussion
Chairpersons: Christel Prudhomme, Ilias Pechlivanidis and Fredrik Wetterhall A speed-dating with three “challenge holders”! |
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| 17.00 – 19.00: Ice Breaker | ||
Day 2:
22 September 2015 (Tuesday)
| Session 4: Improving skill of seasonal forecasts Chairperson: Ilias Pechlivanidis |
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| 9.00- 9.30 | Keynote talk: Upskilling – Uncertainty reduction and representation in seasonal streamflow forecasting (PDF) | QJ Wang |
| 9.30- 9.50 | Development and applications of the calibration, bridging and merging (CBAM) method for post-processing GCM seasonal climate forecasts (PDF) | Andrew Schepen |
| 9.50- 10.10 | Multisite downscaling of seasonal predictions to daily rainfall characteristics over Pacific-Andean river basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model (PDF) | Luis Pineda |
| 10.10- 10.30 |
Value of in-situ and satellite based snow observations for improving seasonal runoff predictions (PDF) | David Gustafsson |
| 10.30 – 11.00: Coffee break / Poster display | ||
| 11.00 – 12.30: Workgroup/discussion
Chairpersons: Maria-Helena Ramos and Massimiliano Zappa Creating a HEPEX testbed of seasonal hydrological prediction Contribution by Andy Wood: Example from a small experiment at NCAR, USA (PDF) |
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| 12:30 – 13:30: Lunch | ||
| Session 5: Quality and predictability of seasonal predictions Chairperson: QJ Wang |
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| 13.30- 14.00 | Keynote talk: Understanding seasonal hydrologic predictability using a variational ensemble streamflow predictability assessment (VESPA) (PDF) | Andy Wood |
| 14.00- 14.20 | Towards using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction (PDF) | Christopher White |
| 14.20- 14.40 | Contributions of soil conditions in the occurrence of 2003 and 2010 heat waves (PDF) | Chloé Prodhomme |
| 14.40- 15.00 | Developing the skill of seasonal to multi-annual climate prediction (PDF) | Ralf Döscher |
| 15.00 – 15.30: Coffee break / Poster display | ||
| 15.30 – 17.00: Workgroup/discussion
Chairpersons: Andy Wood, Fredrik Wetterhall, Maria-Helena Ramos Creating a HEPEX testbed of seasonal hydrological prediction |
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| 17.00 – 18.00: Social sport activity or Visit to SMHI (Group I) | ||
| 18.00 – 19.00: Free time |
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| 19.00 – 22.00: Dinner@Durkslaget restaurant http://durkslaget.se/ | ||
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Day 3:
23 September 2015 (Wednesday)
| Session 6: Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions and applications in hydrology Chairperson: Christopher White |
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| 9.00- 9.20 | Ensemble spring flood forecasting in Sweden: ECMWF vs. climatology (PDF) | Jonas Olsson |
| 9.20- 9.40 | Ensemble seasonal hydrological forecasting in Europe: ECMWF vs. climatology (PDF) | Ilias Pechlivanidis |
| 9.40- 10.00 | Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of snow water equivalent and runoff in mountainous areas (PDF) | Stefanie Jörg-Hess (presented by Massimiliano Zappa) |
| 10.00- 10.20 |
Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe (PDF) | Louise Arnal |
| 10.20- 10.40 | Seasonal forecasting of European river discharge: Hindcast verification of VIC and LPJML models driven by ECMWF System4 (PDF) | Wouter Greuell |
| 10.40 – 11.00: Coffee break / Poster display | ||
| 11.00 – 12.15: Workgroup/discussion
Chairpersons: Andy Wood, Fredrik Wetterhall, Maria-Helena Ramos Creating a HEPEX testbed of seasonal hydrological prediction
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| 12.15- 12.30 |
Closing – Wrapping up (PDF) | Ilias Pechlivanidis |
| 12.30 – 13.30: Visit to SMHI (Group II) / Lunch |
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| End of workshop | ||
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LIST OF POSTERS
| Title | First author |
| Artificial neural networks in forecasting groundwater level of the mid Pliocene aquifer in Mekong Delta, Vietnam | Vu Thi Huong |
| Drought forecasting using statistical methods | Doug Richardson |
| Downscaling of extended-range and seasonal meteorological predictions for use in an ensemble hydrometeorologic forecast chain | Samuel Monhart |
| HEPS4Power – Extended-range Hydrometeorological ensemble predictions for improved hydropower operations and revenues | Massimiliano Zappa |
| Skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice cover (PDF) | Alexey Yu Karpechko |
| Seasonal hydrological forecasting over Europe: prospects and applications (PDF) | Louise Arnal |
| Forecasting low flows and droughts in Sweden | Henrik Spångmyr |
| Benchmarking different approaches for harnessing predictability in climate and hydrologic initial conditions for seasonal runoff prediction (PDF) | Andy Wood |
| Seasonal forecasting of reservoir inflows using remotely sensed precipitation estimates in data sparse regions (PDF) | Sam Dixon |
Support funding: Energiforsk, Swedish energy research centre