HEPEX Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting Workshop


Workshop participants – Visit the HEPEX Photo Gallery to see this and other photos from previous workshops


Visit to SMHI: There are two 1-h slots in the agenda dedicated to a tour visit of SMHI. Henrik Spångmyr will guide the two groups. He will give a 30′ presentation about the SMHI forecasting system, 10′ for questions, and then a 15-20′ tour. You may register to the visit on the first day of the workshop.

  • Download the Agenda here: PDF
  • Download the Book of Abstracts here: PDF

Day 1:

21 September 2015 (Monday)

8.30- 9.00 Registration
9.00- 9.10 Welcoming note from SMHI (PDF) (PDF) Ilias Pechlivanidis Berit Arheimer
9.10- 9.20 Presentation of HEPEX and workshop aims (see general info about HEPEX here) Fredrik Wetterhall
Session 1: User needs, communication and decision making
Chairperson: Ilias Pechlivanidis
9.20- 9.50 Keynote talk: Processing weather forecasts for hydrological ensemble forecasting and decision making in hydropower (PDF) Erik Tjøtta
9.50- 10.10 Local-scale early warnings for drought can they increase community resilience? (PDF) Lotta Andersson
10.10- 10.30 Poster short-introductions
10.30 – 11.00: Coffee break / Poster display
Session 2: Climate and water services using seasonal forecasts
Chairperson: Fredrik Wetterhall
11.00- 11.20 Linking seasonal forecasts to user needs in the Limpopo basin in southern Africa (PDF)  Micha Werner
11.20- 11.40 Towards a seasonal forecasting service for the German waterways – Requirements, approaches and potential products (PDF)  Dennis Meissner
11.40- 12.15 Discussion
12:15 – 12:30: Group Photo
12:30 – 13:30: Lunch
Session 3: Towards operational monthly to seasonal forecasting systems
Chairperson: Micha Werner
13.30- 14.00 Keynote talk: Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational river flow and groundwater level forecast at monthly to seasonal scale (PDF) Christel Prudhomme
14.00- 14.20 Evaluation of a multi-model seasonal hydrological forecast prototype for the spring flood period in Sweden (PDF) Kean Foster
14.20- 14.40 A seasonal low-flow forecasting and water management system to support reservoir management under multiple water uses (PDF) Louise Crochemore
14.40- 15.00 Seasonal and short-term forecasting in the Upper Maule basin, Chile Roar Jensen
15.00 – 15.30: Coffee break / Poster display
15.30 – 17.00: Workgroup/discussion

Chairpersons: Christel Prudhomme, Ilias Pechlivanidis and Fredrik Wetterhall

A speed-dating with three “challenge holders”!

(Discussion-Day1) (Summary_Discussion-Day1)

17.00 – 19.00: Ice Breaker

Day 2:
22 September 2015 (Tuesday)

Session 4: Improving skill of seasonal forecasts
Chairperson: Ilias Pechlivanidis
9.00- 9.30 Keynote talk: Upskilling – Uncertainty reduction and representation in seasonal streamflow forecasting (PDF) QJ Wang
9.30- 9.50 Development and applications of the calibration, bridging and merging (CBAM) method for post-processing GCM seasonal climate forecasts (PDF) Andrew Schepen
9.50- 10.10 Multisite downscaling of seasonal predictions to daily rainfall characteristics over Pacific-Andean river basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model (PDF) Luis Pineda
10.10- 10.30
Value of in-situ and satellite based snow observations for improving seasonal runoff predictions (PDF) David Gustafsson
10.30 – 11.00: Coffee break / Poster display
11.00 – 12.30: Workgroup/discussion

Chairpersons: Maria-Helena Ramos and Massimiliano Zappa

Creating a HEPEX testbed of seasonal hydrological prediction
I: What are we interested in studying?

Contribution by Andy Wood: Example from a small experiment at NCAR, USA (PDF)

12:30 – 13:30: Lunch
Session 5: Quality and predictability of seasonal predictions
Chairperson: QJ Wang
13.30- 14.00 Keynote talk: Understanding seasonal hydrologic predictability using a variational ensemble streamflow predictability assessment (VESPA) (PDF) Andy Wood
14.00- 14.20 Towards using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction (PDF) Christopher White
14.20- 14.40 Contributions of soil conditions in the occurrence of 2003 and 2010 heat waves (PDF) Chloé Prodhomme
14.40- 15.00 Developing the skill of seasonal to multi-annual climate prediction (PDF) Ralf Döscher
15.00 – 15.30: Coffee break / Poster display
15.30 – 17.00: Workgroup/discussion

Chairpersons: Andy Wood, Fredrik Wetterhall, Maria-Helena Ramos

Creating a HEPEX testbed of seasonal hydrological prediction
II: How to set up a community experiment? (Discussion-Day2)

17.00 18.00: Social sport activity or Visit to SMHI (Group I)
18.00 19.00: Free time
19.00 22.00: Dinner@Durkslaget restaurant http://durkslaget.se/


Day 3:
23 September 2015 (Wednesday)

Session 6: Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions and applications in hydrology
Chairperson: Christopher White
9.00- 9.20 Ensemble spring flood forecasting in Sweden: ECMWF vs. climatology (PDF) Jonas Olsson
9.20- 9.40 Ensemble seasonal hydrological forecasting in Europe: ECMWF vs. climatology (PDF) Ilias Pechlivanidis
9.40- 10.00 Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of snow water equivalent and runoff in mountainous areas (PDF) Stefanie Jörg-Hess (presented by Massimiliano Zappa)
10.00- 10.20
Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe (PDF) Louise Arnal
10.20- 10.40 Seasonal forecasting of European river discharge: Hindcast verification of VIC and LPJML models driven by ECMWF System4 (PDF) Wouter Greuell
10.40 – 11.00: Coffee break / Poster display
11.00 – 12.15: Workgroup/discussion

Chairpersons: Andy Wood, Fredrik Wetterhall, Maria-Helena Ramos

Creating a HEPEX testbed of seasonal hydrological prediction

  • Report back from discussions
  • Science Plan & Funding opportunities
12.15- 12.30
Closing – Wrapping up (PDF) Ilias Pechlivanidis 
12.30 – 13.30: Visit to SMHI (Group II) / Lunch
End of workshop



Title First author
Artificial neural networks in forecasting groundwater level of the mid Pliocene aquifer in Mekong Delta, Vietnam Vu Thi Huong
Drought forecasting using statistical methods Doug Richardson
Downscaling of extended-range and seasonal meteorological predictions for use in an ensemble hydrometeorologic forecast chain Samuel Monhart
HEPS4Power – Extended-range Hydrometeorological ensemble predictions for improved hydropower operations and revenues Massimiliano Zappa
Skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice cover (PDF) Alexey Yu Karpechko
Seasonal hydrological forecasting over Europe: prospects and applications (PDF) Louise Arnal
Forecasting low flows and droughts in Sweden Henrik Spångmyr
Benchmarking different approaches for harnessing predictability in climate and hydrologic initial conditions for seasonal runoff prediction (PDF) Andy Wood
Seasonal forecasting of reservoir inflows using remotely sensed precipitation estimates in data sparse regions (PDF) Sam Dixon

ef_fargSupport funding: Energiforsk, Swedish energy research centre