HEPEX workshop on seasonal hydrological forecasting

Keynote talks

Upskilling – Uncertainty reduction and representation in seasonal forecasting

By Dr. QJ Wang, senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO, Australia:

“I will share with participants on the various methods we have developed to improve forecast skill and reliability, extend forecast range, and make forecast products more tailored to user needs in Australia” [read more=”Read more about QJ Wang” less=”Read less”]

Dr Wang is a senior principal research scientist within the CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and is based in Melbourne, Australia. Dr Wang leads CSIRO’s research on water forecasting. Research by Dr Wang and his team has led to a national seasonal streamflow forecasting service operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/). The service now provides forecasts for over 160 locations, including major water storages and river systems across Australia. Forecasts issued at the start of each month give the likelihood of streamflow exceeding a given volume in the next three months. Research by Dr Wang and his team has also enabled a new national short-term streamflow forecasting service, which provides daily forecasts of streamflow for the next seven days. Dr Wang has published widely, including many recent journal papers on streamflow and climate forecasting.

Dr Wang graduated in 1984 from Tsinghua University with a “Graduate of Excellence” award. He completed his MSc and PhD studies at the National University of Ireland, Galway. Dr Wang was a senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne before taking up the position of principal scientist at the Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment in 1999. He joined CSIRO Land and Water as an OCE Science Leader in May 2007. Dr Wang was awarded the 2014 GN Alexander Medal by the Institution of Engineers, Australia

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Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational river flow and groundwater level forecast at monthly to seasonal scale

by Christel Prudhomme, CEH, UK:

“I will talk about the Hydrological Outlook UK, which is the first operational forecast system for Great Britain that delivers monthly outlooks of the water resources for the next 1 to 3 months for both river flow and groundwater levels. It is based on an expert-merging of three complementary methods: a statistical method based on river flow analogue and persistence; a Streamflow Ensemble Prediction System applied to selected catchments and boreholes; and a national hydrological modelling system driven by rainfall scenarios based on the UK Met Office ensemble rainfall 1 and 3 months forecasts.”[read more=”Read more about C. Prudhomme” less=”Read less”]

Since 2012, Christel has been coordinating CEH research on droughts and leading a drought team to study, understand and model the development in time and space of water deficits in the UK and Europe, and their impact on the environment. She is the CEH Principal Investigator on the NERC-funded project IMPETUS that aims to assess and improve current ability to forecast droughts in the UK at seasonal lead time. She is leading the CEH input to the Environment Agency monthly Water Situation Reports. She is co-investigator of the NERC-funded project aiming to produce the first UK Drought Inventory starting from the late 19^th century, and to develop a system-based understanding of drought and water scarcity episodes in the UK. For more info, visit the website: http://www.ceh.ac.uk/staffwebpages/christelprudhomme.html

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Processing weather forecasts for hydrological ensemble forecasting and decision making in hydropower

By Erik Tjøtta, Statkraft Energi AS, Norway:

“In the presentation we outline how information from weather forecasts for various horizons can be combined, using quantile mapping, and processed through the models to produce a seasonal hydrological ensemble forecast.” [read more=”Read more about Erik presentation” less=”Read less”]

Statkraft is a leading company in hydropower internationally and Europe’s largest generator of renewable energy, with its core market being the Nordic region where the company is among other involved in the operation of more than 200 hydro power stations with a total capacity of about 13000 MW. Statkraft models inflow to its reservoirs using Powel Inflow (HBV-model), a precipitation/run-off model that simulates the run-off process in a catchment area on the basis of quantitative temperature and precipitation forecasts/scenarios. To capture future uncertainties, ensemble type weather forecast are used as input and various resources (i.e AROME, ECMWF ENS, ECMWF Monthly, historical scenarios) are available for different horizons, each with its strengths and weaknesses. However, for these forecasts to be of use for decision making in an operational setting, a clear process that balances inputs from the various forecasts needs to be in place.

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