Program
10th Anniversary HEPEX Workshop
Download the abstracts here: 10th Ann. Workshop HEPEX Book of Abstracts
The PDF files of the presentations are available below.
___________________
Day 1: HEPEX and HEPS – Developments and Experiences
Tue, 24 June, 08:30–18:30
| 08:30-09:00 | Registration, coffee |
|
| Session 1 – A decade of HEPEX: from concepts and community to operations |
||
| Chairpersons: A. Wood (NCAR), J. Thielen (JRC) |
||
| Speaker | ||
| 09:00-09:15 | Welcome speeches | R. Hartman (NWS) & NOAA representatives |
| 09:15-09:45 | A decade of HEPEX – a review of what we have achieved (invited) (PDF) (PDF) |
Schaake (Consultant) & Buizza (ECMWF) |
| 09:45-10:00 | A decade of HEPEX – new developments to build the community (hepex.org) (PDF) |
Verkade (Deltares) |
| 10:00-10:30 | Ensemble forecasts applied to real-world decision making: the New York City Water Supply Operations Support Tool (OST) (demo) (invited) (PDF) |
Porter (NYCDEP) |
| 10:30-10:50 | The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) (invited) (PDF) |
Thielen (JRC) |
| 10:50-11:10 | Coffee, tea and biscuit break | |
| Session 2 – Emerging ensemble forecast systems | ||
| Chairpersons: J. Demargne (Hydris) |
||
| 11:10-11:30 | Achievements, challenges and vision on ensemble forecasting at Quebec’s government (PDF) | Fortier (CEHQ) |
| 11:30-11:50 | Integrated forecast and reservoir management: The Inform System (PDF) |
Georgakakos (HRC) |
| 11:50-12:10 | A system for continuous hydrological ensemble forecasting (SCHEF) for Australia (PDF) |
Bennett (CSIRO) |
| 12:10-12:30 | MMEFS operational hydrologic ensemble forecasting at the Ohio River Forecast Center (PDF) |
Adams (Fairfield Technologies) |
| 12:30-12:45 | Plenary discussion | |
| 12:45-14:00 | Lunch | |
| 14:00-14:30 | Game 1 – A risk-based decision-making game relevant to water management (PDF available on the Resources page) |
Crochemore, Ramos, van Andel, Pappenberger & Wood |
| Session 2 – Emerging ensemble forecast systems (cont.) | ||
| Chairpersons: J. Demargne (Hydris) |
||
| 14:30-14:50 | Preliminary results of the implementation of the hydrologic ensemble forecast system at the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (PDF) |
Jones (NWS ABRFC) |
| 14:50-15:10 | Operationalizing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for internal forecaster guidance in both short-term flood forecasting and long-term water supply (PDF) |
Fickenscher (NWS CNRFC) |
| 15:10-15:30 | Seamless forecasting of floods and droughts on a global scale (PDF) | Wetterhall (ECMWF) |
| 15:30-17:00 | POSTERS (with COFFEE, TEA and BISCUITS) | |
| Session 3 – The future of hydrologic ensemble prediction |
||
| Moderators: A. Wood (NCAR), J. Thielen (JRC), M.H. Ramos (IRSTEA) |
||
| 17:00-17:50 | Breakout work groups | |
| 17:50-18:30 | Plenary reporting and discussion of work groups | |
| 18:30 | End of the day – Bus back to hotel – Free evening | |
Day 2: User Connections, Perspectives and Applications
Wed, 25 June, 08:30–18:30
| 08:30-09:00 | Coffee |
|
| Session 4 – HEPEX science and application |
||
| Chairpersons: D. Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen), S.J. van Andel (UNESCO-IHE) |
||
| Speaker | ||
| 09:00-09:30 | The rise of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF in the 10 years of HEPEX and applications (invited) (PDF) | Buizza (ECMWF) |
| 09:30-09:50 | Research meets practice: the power lies in necessity (PDF) |
Liechti (WSL) |
| 09:50-10:10 | Lesson-learnt from developing a multi scale ensemble hydrologic forecast system customized for optimization of low control operations (PDF) | Voisin (PNNL) |
| 10:10-10:30 | Application of ensemble predictions in US Bureau of Reclamation water management decisions (invited) (PDF) |
Raff (USBR) |
| 10:30-10:50 | Coffee, tea and biscuit break | |
| Session 5 – Visualization and assessment of ensemble forecasts | ||
| Chairperson: SJ. van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), D. Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen) | ||
| 10:50-11:10 | Combine ensembles with inundation mapping to visualize flood forecast uncertainty (PDF) |
Curtis (WEST Consultants) |
| 11:10-11:30 | End-user focused evaluation and development of ensemble flood forecasts (PDF) |
Stephens (Univ. of Reading) |
| 11:30-11:50 | Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts: a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine (PDF) |
Verkade (Deltares) |
| 11:50-12:10 | Plenary discussion | |
| 12:10-12:45 | Game 2 – HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself! (PDF available on the Resources page) |
Zappa, Liechti, Pappenberger, van Andel & Ramos |
| 12:45-14:00 | Lunch | |
| Session 6 – Making usable predictions for decisions under uncertainty | ||
| Chairpersons: N. Voisin (PNNL), J. Verkade (Deltares) |
||
| 14:00-14:20 | NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): effectively communicating uncertainty via products and information (PDF) |
Wells (NWS) |
| 14:20-14:40 | How not to ruin your whitewater kayak season (PDF) |
Boucher (Univ. of Chicoutimi) |
| 14:40-15:00 | Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts (PDF) | Wetterhall (ECMWF) |
| 15:00-15:20 | Hydrologic ensemble forecasts for decision makers: experimental applications in California and Nevada for hydropower management, water distribution, and flood risk management (PDF) |
Haynes (NWS CNRFC) |
| 15:20-16:50 | POSTERS (with COFFEE, TEA and BISCUITS) | |
| Session 7 – Decision support application of ensemble forecasting | ||
| Chairpersons: J. Verkade (Deltares), N. Voisin (PNNL) |
||
| 16:50-17:10 | Ensemble streamflow prediction experience at Bonneville Power Administration (PDF) |
McManamon (BPA) |
| 17:10-17:30 | Using ensemble forecasts to minimize risk and support decision making under uncertainty in hydroelectric power operations (PDF) |
Lowry (Sandia National Laboratories) |
| 17:30-17:50 | Cost of inflow forecast uncertainty for day ahead hydropower production scheduling (PDF) |
Veselka (ANL) |
| 17:50-18:10 | Using ensemble forecasts and reforecasts in actual practice – Examples from planning and operations (PDF) |
Sheer (Hydrologics) |
| 18:10-18:30 | Plenary discussion | |
| 18:30 | End of the day – Bus back to hotel | |
| 19:30 | Evening collaboration session |
|
Day 3: HEPS Methods, Research and Applications
Thu, 26 June, 09:00–18:00
| 08:30-09:00 | Coffee |
|
| Session 8 – New directions in ensemble prediction |
||
| Chairpersons: F. Wetterhall (ECMWF), J. Thielen (JRC) |
||
| Speaker | ||
| 09:00-09:30 | Data assimilation in ensemble water forecasting – Challenges and opportunities (invited) (PDF) |
Seo (UTA) |
| 09:30-09:50 | Conditional weather resampling method for ensemble streamflow forecasting (PDF) |
Beckers (Deltares) |
| 09:50-10:10 | Toward ensemble forecasting of water quality (PDF) |
Kim (NIER) |
| 10:10-10:30 | New Initiatives (Introduction PDF) (Global High-Res.DEM_Schumann) |
J. Thielen (JRC) |
| 10:30-10:50 | Coffee, tea and biscuit break | |
| Session 9 – Seasonal ensemble forecasting applications | ||
| Chairperson: F. Wetterhall (ECMWF) |
||
| 10:50-11:10 | Seasonal hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system: forecast of irrigation potentials in Denmark (PDF) |
Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen) |
| 11:10-11:30 | Developing climate-informed ensemble streamflow forecasts over the Colorado River Basin (PDF) |
Miller (NWS CBRFC) |
| 11:30-11:50 | Generating forecast-guided stochastic scenarios of monthly streamflows out to 12 months (PDF) |
Wang (CSIRO) |
| 11:50-12:10 | A climate index weighting method for ensemble forecasts based on a bayesian resampling approach (PDF) |
Bradley (Univ. of Iowa) |
| 12:10-12:30 | Plenary discussion | |
| 12:30-13:45 | Lunch | |
| 13:45-14:30 | NCEP tour | |
| Session 10 – Ensemble forecasting for flash floods | ||
| Chairpersons: L. Stephens (Univ. of Reading) |
||
| 14:30-14:50 | Hydrologic ensembles for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins based on convection-permitting NWP forecasts (PDF) | Demargne (Hydris) |
| 14:50-15:10 | Linking the hydrologic and atmospheric communities through probabilistic flash flood forecasting (PDF) |
Hogsett (Univ. of Iowa) |
| 15:10-15:30 | Verification of clustering methods applied to hydrological ensemble forecasts (PDF) |
van den Bergh (RMI Belgium) |
| 15:30-15:50 | Plenary discussion |
|
| 15:50-16:30 | Plenary discussion of HEPEX organizational matters: Science and Implementation Plan, leadership & roles, blog, communication, meetings, summer school, handbook, teaching HEPS (training tools, games), and more. | |
| 16:30 | End of the workshop | |
List of posters (some available in PDF to download):
- A flood inundation climatology at continental scale, Schumann et al.
- A strategy to overcome adverse effects of autoregressive updating of streamflow predictions, Li et al.
- adaptACTION: Simulate decision making by integrating climate change impact
knowledge, CEHQ (PDF) - Assimilation of satellite quantitative precipitation estimates and streamflow into distributed hydrologic models for flood prediction, Zhang and Lee.
- Climatological analysis of model precipitation from NCEP GEFS reforecast, Luo and Zhu.
- Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological ensemble prediction assessment, Xu et al.
- Comparison of quantitative precipitation estimates derived from rain gauge and radar derived algorithms for operational flash flood support over the Hawaiian Islands, Streubel & Kodama (PDF)
- Conveying coherent flood forecast products from deterministic and ensemble forecast systems to users: challenges and opportunities at operational forecast centers, Henkel.
- Creating an Ensemble of Flash Flood Guidance Models to Assess Physical Flash Flood Processes and Model Skill in the Ohio River Basin, Barber & Hein (PDF)
- Data fusion with gaussian processes: an approach to merging GEFS and CFS precipitation forecasts, Gong et al.
- Determining and communicating the uncertainty of event-based, areal precipitation, Amburn and Lang.
- Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Try it yourself!, van Andel et al. (PDF available on the Resources page)
- Does consideration of the initial condition uncertainty improve multimodel ensemble forecasts?, Thiboult and Anctil.
- Does post-processing deterministic numerical weather predictions at multiple time steps lead to better ensemble rainfall forecasts? Robertson et al.
- Ensemble data assimilation for operational water quality forecasting, Kim et al. (PDF)
- Ensemble modeling to improve hydropower generation and flood forecasts in the American River Basin, Curtis et al. (PDF)
- Ensemble space-time simulation of rainfall from gauge observations with extensive missing records, Wang et al.
- Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) for estimating river discharge, Romero-Revilla et al. (PDF)
- Exploring how the question influences the decision on the basis of probabilistic forecasts, Alfonso et al.
- Global flood forecasting and detection in support to a Global Flood Partnership, Thielen-del Pozo et al.
- On the effective use of probabilistic forecasts in flood forecasting, warning and response systems, Verkade et al. (PDF)
- Operating rules derivation considering hydrologic uncertainty: taking the Jinsha River System as example, Ji et al.
- Operational implementation of the Hydrological Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS), Fresch et al. (PDF)
- Relating seasonal streamflow forecast skill to uncertainties in initial conditions, future forcings, and hydrologic modelling, Wood et al.
- Statistical techniques in water forecasting, Wang et al.
- Verification of precipitation forecasts from two numerical weather prediction models as forcing inputs to hydrologic modeling in the Middle-Atlantic River Forecast Center, Siddique et al.
- Verification of water supply forecast tools in the Colorado River Basin: ensemble streamflow prediction and hydrologic ensemble forecast system, Nielson & Werner (PDF)