10th Anniversary HEPEX Workshop

Download the abstracts here: 10th Ann. Workshop HEPEX Book of Abstracts

The PDF files of the presentations are available below.


Day 1:  HEPEX and HEPS – Developments and Experiences

Tue, 24 June, 08:30–18:30

08:30-09:00 Registration, coffee
Session 1 – A decade of HEPEX: from concepts and community to operations
Chairpersons: A. Wood (NCAR), J. Thielen (JRC)
09:00-09:15 Welcome speeches   R. Hartman (NWS) & NOAA representatives
09:15-09:45 A decade of HEPEX – a review of what we have achieved  (invited) (PDF) (PDF)
Schaake (Consultant) & Buizza (ECMWF)
09:45-10:00 A decade of HEPEX – new developments to build the community ( (PDF)
Verkade (Deltares)
10:00-10:30 Ensemble forecasts applied to real-world decision making: the New York City Water Supply Operations Support Tool (OST) (demo) (invited) (PDF)
Porter (NYCDEP)
10:30-10:50 The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) (invited) (PDF)
Thielen (JRC)
10:50-11:10  Coffee, tea and biscuit break  
Session 2 –  Emerging ensemble forecast systems
Chairpersons: J. Demargne (Hydris)
11:10-11:30 Achievements, challenges and vision on ensemble forecasting at Quebec’s government (PDF) Fortier (CEHQ)
11:30-11:50 Integrated forecast and reservoir management: The Inform System (PDF)
Georgakakos (HRC)
11:50-12:10 A system for continuous hydrological ensemble forecasting (SCHEF) for Australia (PDF)
Bennett (CSIRO)
12:10-12:30 MMEFS operational hydrologic ensemble forecasting at the Ohio River Forecast Center (PDF)
Adams (Fairfield Technologies)
12:30-12:45 Plenary discussion  
12:45-14:00  Lunch  
14:00-14:30 Game 1 – A risk-based decision-making game relevant to water management (PDF available on the Resources page)
Crochemore,  Ramos, van Andel, Pappenberger & Wood
Session 2 –  Emerging ensemble forecast systems (cont.)
Chairpersons: J. Demargne (Hydris)
14:30-14:50 Preliminary results of the implementation of the hydrologic ensemble forecast system at the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (PDF)
14:50-15:10 Operationalizing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for internal forecaster guidance in both short-term flood forecasting and long-term water supply (PDF)
Fickenscher (NWS CNRFC)
15:10-15:30 Seamless forecasting of floods and droughts on a global scale (PDF) Wetterhall (ECMWF)
15:30-17:00 POSTERS (with COFFEE, TEA and BISCUITS) 
Session 3 – The future of hydrologic ensemble prediction
Moderators: A. Wood (NCAR), J. Thielen (JRC), M.H. Ramos (IRSTEA)
17:00-17:50 Breakout work groups
17:50-18:30 Plenary reporting and discussion of work groups
 18:30 End of the day – Bus back to hotel – Free evening 

Day 2:  User Connections, Perspectives and Applications

Wed, 25 June, 08:30–18:30

08:30-09:00 Coffee
Session 4 – HEPEX science and application
Chairpersons: D. Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen), S.J. van Andel (UNESCO-IHE)
09:00-09:30 The rise of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF in the 10 years of HEPEX and applications (invited) (PDF) Buizza (ECMWF)
09:30-09:50 Research meets practice: the power lies in necessity (PDF)
Liechti (WSL)
09:50-10:10 Lesson-learnt from developing a multi scale ensemble hydrologic forecast system customized for optimization of low control operations (PDF) Voisin (PNNL)
10:10-10:30 Application of ensemble predictions in US Bureau of Reclamation water management decisions (invited) (PDF)
Raff (USBR)
10:30-10:50 Coffee, tea and biscuit break
Session 5 – Visualization and assessment of ensemble forecasts
Chairperson: SJ. van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), D. Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen)
10:50-11:10 Combine ensembles with inundation mapping to visualize flood forecast uncertainty (PDF)
Curtis (WEST Consultants)

11:10-11:30 End-user focused evaluation and development of ensemble flood forecasts (PDF)
Stephens (Univ. of Reading)
11:30-11:50 Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts: a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine (PDF)
Verkade (Deltares)
11:50-12:10 Plenary discussion
12:10-12:45 Game 2 – HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself! (PDF available on the Resources page)
Zappa, Liechti, Pappenberger, van Andel & Ramos
12:45-14:00 Lunch
Session 6 – Making usable predictions for decisions under uncertainty
Chairpersons: N. Voisin (PNNL), J. Verkade (Deltares)
14:00-14:20 NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS):  effectively communicating uncertainty via products and information (PDF)
Wells (NWS)
14:20-14:40 How not to ruin your whitewater kayak season (PDF)
Boucher (Univ. of Chicoutimi)
14:40-15:00 Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts (PDF) Wetterhall (ECMWF)
15:00-15:20 Hydrologic ensemble forecasts for decision makers:  experimental applications in California and Nevada for hydropower management, water distribution, and flood risk management (PDF)
Haynes (NWS CNRFC)
15:20-16:50 POSTERS (with COFFEE, TEA and BISCUITS)
Session 7 – Decision support application of ensemble forecasting
Chairpersons: J. Verkade (Deltares), N. Voisin (PNNL)
16:50-17:10 Ensemble streamflow prediction experience at Bonneville Power Administration (PDF)
McManamon (BPA)
17:10-17:30 Using ensemble forecasts to minimize risk and support decision making under uncertainty in hydroelectric power operations (PDF)
Lowry (Sandia National Laboratories)
17:30-17:50 Cost of inflow forecast uncertainty for day ahead hydropower production scheduling (PDF)
Veselka (ANL)
17:50-18:10 Using ensemble forecasts and reforecasts in actual practice – Examples from planning and operations (PDF)
Sheer (Hydrologics)
18:10-18:30 Plenary discussion
18:30 End of the day – Bus back to hotel
19:30 Evening collaboration session

Day 3: HEPS Methods, Research and Applications

Thu, 26 June, 09:00–18:00

08:30-09:00 Coffee
Session 8 – New directions in ensemble prediction
Chairpersons: F. Wetterhall (ECMWF), J. Thielen (JRC)
09:00-09:30 Data assimilation in ensemble water forecasting – Challenges and opportunities (invited) (PDF)
Seo (UTA)
09:30-09:50 Conditional weather resampling method for ensemble streamflow forecasting (PDF)
Beckers (Deltares)
09:50-10:10 Toward ensemble forecasting of water quality (PDF)
Kim (NIER)
10:10-10:30 New Initiatives (Introduction PDF) (Global High-Res.DEM_Schumann)
J. Thielen (JRC)
10:30-10:50 Coffee, tea and biscuit break
Session 9 – Seasonal ensemble forecasting applications
Chairperson: F. Wetterhall (ECMWF)
10:50-11:10 Seasonal hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system: forecast of irrigation potentials in Denmark (PDF)
Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen)
11:10-11:30 Developing climate-informed ensemble streamflow forecasts over the Colorado River Basin (PDF)
Miller (NWS CBRFC)
11:30-11:50 Generating forecast-guided stochastic scenarios of monthly streamflows out to 12 months (PDF)
Wang (CSIRO)
11:50-12:10 A climate index weighting method for ensemble forecasts based on a bayesian resampling approach (PDF)
Bradley (Univ. of Iowa)
12:10-12:30 Plenary discussion
12:30-13:45 Lunch
13:45-14:30 NCEP tour
Session 10 – Ensemble forecasting for flash floods
Chairpersons: L. Stephens (Univ. of Reading)
14:30-14:50 Hydrologic ensembles for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins based on convection-permitting NWP forecasts (PDF) Demargne (Hydris)
14:50-15:10 Linking the hydrologic and atmospheric communities through probabilistic flash flood forecasting (PDF)
Hogsett (Univ. of Iowa)
15:10-15:30 Verification of clustering methods applied to hydrological ensemble forecasts (PDF)
van den Bergh (RMI Belgium)
15:30-15:50 Plenary discussion
15:50-16:30 Plenary discussion of HEPEX organizational matters: Science and Implementation Plan, leadership & roles, blog, communication, meetings, summer school, handbook, teaching HEPS (training tools, games), and more.
16:30 End of the workshop


Poster presentations

List of posters (some available in PDF to download):

  • A flood inundation climatology at continental scale, Schumann et al.
  • A strategy to overcome adverse effects of autoregressive updating of streamflow predictions, Li et al.
  • adaptACTION: Simulate decision making by integrating climate change impact
    knowledge, CEHQ (PDF)
  • Assimilation of satellite quantitative precipitation estimates and streamflow into distributed hydrologic models for flood prediction, Zhang and Lee.
  • Climatological analysis of model precipitation from NCEP GEFS reforecast, Luo and Zhu.
  • Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological ensemble prediction assessment, Xu et al.
  • Comparison of quantitative precipitation estimates derived from rain gauge and radar derived algorithms for operational flash flood support over the Hawaiian Islands, Streubel & Kodama (PDF)
  • Conveying coherent flood forecast products from deterministic and ensemble forecast systems to users: challenges and opportunities at operational forecast centers, Henkel.
  • Creating an Ensemble of Flash Flood Guidance Models to Assess Physical Flash Flood Processes and Model Skill in the Ohio River Basin, Barber & Hein (PDF)
  • Data fusion with gaussian processes: an approach to merging GEFS and CFS precipitation forecasts, Gong et al.
  • Determining and communicating the uncertainty of event-based, areal precipitation, Amburn and Lang.
  • Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Try it yourself!, van Andel et al. (PDF available on the Resources page)
  • Does consideration of the initial condition uncertainty improve multimodel ensemble forecasts?, Thiboult and Anctil.
  • Does post-processing deterministic numerical weather predictions at multiple time steps lead to better ensemble rainfall forecasts? Robertson et al.
  • Ensemble data assimilation for operational water quality forecasting, Kim et al. (PDF)
  • Ensemble modeling to improve hydropower generation and flood forecasts in the American River Basin, Curtis et al. (PDF)
  • Ensemble space-time simulation of rainfall from gauge observations with extensive missing records, Wang et al.
  • Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) for estimating river discharge, Romero-Revilla et al. (PDF)
  • Exploring how the question influences the decision on the basis of probabilistic forecasts, Alfonso et al.
  • Global flood forecasting and detection in support to a Global Flood Partnership, Thielen-del Pozo et al.
  • On the effective use of probabilistic forecasts in flood forecasting, warning and response systems, Verkade et al. (PDF)
  • Operating rules derivation considering hydrologic uncertainty: taking the Jinsha River System as example, Ji et al.
  • Operational implementation of the Hydrological Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS), Fresch et al. (PDF)
  • Relating seasonal streamflow forecast skill to uncertainties in initial conditions, future forcings, and hydrologic modelling, Wood et al.
  • Statistical techniques in water forecasting, Wang et al.
  • Verification of precipitation forecasts from two numerical weather prediction models as forcing inputs to hydrologic modeling in the Middle-Atlantic River Forecast Center, Siddique et al.
  • Verification of water supply forecast tools in the Colorado River Basin: ensemble streamflow prediction and hydrologic ensemble forecast system, Nielson & Werner (PDF)