Programme and keynote speakers

Workshop participants – Visit the HEPEX Photo Gallery to see this and other photos from previous workshops.

Thanks to all participants! The presentations made available by the authors can be downloaded from the links inside the programme below. The summary of the workshop is published here.


Detailed program: HEPEX_programme_final.xlsx

Book of Abstracts: HEPEX_workshop_proceedings.pdf


Prof Hannah Cloke

Hannah is a hydrologist and physical geographer specializing in land surface modelling, flood forecasting, applications of Numerical Weather Predictions and catchment hydrology. Her current research focuses on the theoretical and practical development of early warning systems for natural hazards, particularly for floods and droughts and disaster risk management. [read more=”Read more about Hannah Cloke” less=”Read less”] She is an elected fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society. She works closely with the Environment Agency, the UK Met Office, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as well as a wide range of other national and international partners. Hannah advises government on national and international flooding incidents and provides expert commentary in the media. Hannah is currently a member of the of the Environment Agency Long Term Investment Scenarios Advisory Group and the Environment Agency-DEFRA R&D flood science programme advisory group. Hannah is Executive editor of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. She also sits on the NERC Peer Review Panel B, is a member of the HEPEX project and a committee member of the EGU Hydrology Catchment hydrology section. In January 2015 Hannah was awarded the NERC Early Career Impact Award and was runner up in the Guardian University Awards for impact 2016. Hannah obtained a BSc (1999) and PhD (2003) in Geography from the University of Bristol. She then worked as a Research Associate at the European Commission Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy, working on the European Flood Alert System and then from 2004 lectured at in the Department of Geography at King’s College London. In 2012 she moved to the University of Reading; to a joint post between the Department of Geography and Environmental Science and the Department of Meteorology, where she is now Professor of Hydrology and Co-Director of Water@Reading.[/read]

Dr Matthew Bethune

Matthew has been with the Murray Darling Basin Authority since 2006. Matthew combines a range of experiences in policy, hydrological modelling and practical water management. His current role is the Director of the Water Resources Group. [read more=”Read more about Matthew Bethune” less=”Read less”] The Water Resources Group provides modelling support and technical advice to inform policy and management decisions in the Murray Darling Basin. While at the Murray Darling Basin Authority, Matthew has supported a range of initiatives, including research partnerships, improving the delivery of environmental water, water resource planning and implementation of a daily model for the River Murray system. During this period, Matthew was seconded to the eWater CRC for a three year period to lead the development of the Source modelling platform. Prior to joining the Murray Darling Basin Authority, Matthew worked with the Primary Industries Research Victoria, leading and implementing research into balancing agricultural productivity, water savings, groundwater management and environmental outcomes.[/read]

Dr Dasarath (Jaya) Jayasuriya

Dr Jayasuriya is the General Manager Public Safety at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. His portfolio covers services for all natural hazards affecting the Australian community ranging from Thunderstorm driven Asthma, Flooding, Bushfires to Tropical Cyclones, Tsunami and Storm Surge. [read more=”Read more about Dr Jayasuriya” less=”Read less”] From August 2011 to April 2013, Jaya was a member of the Bureau’s Executive team and acted as Deputy Director of the Climate and Water Division. In this role, Jaya was responsible for the Improving Water Information Program, a 10 year, $450 million Australian Government initiative to monitor, assess and forecast the availability, condition and use of Australia’s water resources. An engineer by profession, Jaya joined the Bureau in 2009 after working for Melbourne Water Corporation and the private sector for 25 years. With a PhD from Monash University in Hydrology and Water Resources, Jaya is widely experienced working internationally and nationally with Commonwealth, state and local government agencies, water utilities, environmental groups and primary producers. Jaya is actively involved in a number of World Meteorology Organisation (WMO) and international initiatives that deliver mutual benefit. He is one of six members of the Expert Group established by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to advise the global community on Climate, Water and Food Security. International experiences include working in Vietnam for the World Bank on disaster risk reduction and building early warning systems, water forecasting capacity building in India, ADB funded water security projects in Thailand and working with the irrigation and disaster management sectors in Sri Lanka.[/read]

Day 1:
6 February 2018 (Tuesday)

8.15 – 9.00: Registration and coffee; put up posters
9.00- 9.30 Workshop open – Welcome from local organizers, sponsors and HEPEX co-chairs
9.30- 9.45 Welcome to country
James Bennett
Chair: QJ Wang, University of Melbourne
9.45- 10.25 Fly me to the moon: a review of ensemble flood forecasting 10 years on (Keynote) (PDF)
Hannah Cloke (University of Reading)
10.25 – 10.55: Coffee break
Session 1 – Regional to global scale forecasting
Chair: Maria-Helena Ramos (Irstea)
10.55- 11.15 A hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecast system using satellite and climate model data over China (Invited) (PDF)
Qiuhong Tang (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
11.15– 11.30 Are global models skillful in forecasting floods, drought, and their impacts in data scarce areas? (PDF) Micha Werner (IHE-Delft/Deltares)
11.30- 11.45 Skilful forecasts of seasonal streamflow over Europe? (PDF) Louise Arnal (University of Reading/ECMWF)
11.45- 12.00 Using global ensemble forecasts to issue flash flood warnings (PDF) Calumn Baugh (ECMWF)
12.00- 12.15 Exploring the application of ensemble prediction methods across regional forecasting domains (PDF) Andy Wood (NCAR)
12.15- 12.35 Earth System Modelling @ECMWF – Implications for hydrology and HEPEX (invited) (PDF)
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
12:35 – 13:40: Lunch break
Session 2 – Hydrological modeling and data assimilation for ensemble prediction
Chair: Nathalie Voisin (PNNL)
13.40- 14.00 Recent developments in evolutionary data assimilation and model uncertainty estimation for hydrological forecasting (Invited) (PDF)
Hamid Moradkhani (Portland State University)
14.00- 14.15 Improving hydrological modelling/predictions for the Rhine River in the framework of the IMPREX project (PDF) Albrecht Weerts (Deltares/Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management group)
14.15- 14.30 Comparison of ensemble flood forecasts from two regional Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS): simple downscaling of global EPS and regional data assimilation (PDF) Tomoki Ushiyama (ICHARM-PWRI/Kyoto University)
14.30 – 14.50: Coffee break
Session 2  (cont.)
Chair: Julien Lerat (BoM)
14.50- 15.10 Impact of hydrological model uncertainty on predictability of seasonal streamflow forecasting in the River Rhine Basin (PDF) Bastian Klein (German Federal Institute of Hydrology)
15.10– 15.25 Impact of data assimilation on the usage of multiple models (Invited) (PDF)
François Anctil (Université Laval)
15.25- 16.00 Recap ( Schalk Jan van Andel, IHE-Delft) & Discussion
Poster Session 1 – 21 posters (with drinks)
16.00- 17.30 See list of posters below
Play the Hepex-Game: Pathways to running a flood forecasting centre – An adventure game, by Louise Arnal et al.

Day 2:
7 February 2018 (Wednesday)

8.30 – 9.00: Coffee; put up posters
Session 3 – Subseasonal forecasting: bridging medium-term and seasonal horizons
Chair: Andy Wood (NCAR)
09.00- 09.20 Lessons learnt from the EDgE seasonal hindcast experiment (Invited) (PDF)
Luis Samaniego (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)
09.20- 09.35 Is it better to post-process seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts at daily or monthly time steps? (PDF) Andrew Schepen (CSIRO)
09.35- 09.50 Merging of extended- and seasonal range forecasts to improve subseasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasts (PDF) Fredrik Wetterhall (ECMWF)
09.50- 10.30 Viewing Ensembles through the Eyes of the End-user (Keynote) (PDF, Video)
Dasarath Jayasuriya (Jaya) (Bureau of Meteorology)
10.30 – 11.30: Group Photo and Coffee break
Session 4 – Ensemble weather prediction
Chair: Christel Prudhomme (ECMWF)
11.30- 11.50 Post-Processing precipitation forecasts from a high Resolution convective-permitting weather model for national scale short-term flow forecasting in New Zealand (Invited) (PDF)
Céline Cattoën-Gilbert (NIWA)
11.50- 12.05 Operational weather verification at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (PDF) Tom Pagano (Bureau of Meteorology)
12.05- 12.20 A seasonally coherent calibration (SCC) model for post-processing numerical weather predictions (PDF) QJ Wang (University of Melbourne)
12.20 – 13.30: Lunch break
Session 5 – Floods: risk, forecasting and warning
Chair: David Robertson (CSIRO)
13.30- 13.50 Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-Driven flood hazard (Invited) (PDF)
Rebecca Emerton (University of Reading/ECMWF)
13.50- 14.05 Contribution of ensemble forecasting approaches to flash flood nowcasting at gauged and ungauged catchments (PDF) Maria-Helena Ramos (Irstea)
14.05- 14.20 The use of radar-based rainfall observations and forecasts to provide enhanced flood forecasts and warnings in Australia (PDF) Agathe Boronkay (Bureau of Meteorology)
14.20- 14.35 The role of hydrological ensemble forecasts of flood and its components over the Yarlung Zangbo River (PDF) Li Liu (Zhejiang University)
14.35 – 14.55: Coffee break
Session 5 – (cont.)
Chair: Micha Werner (IHE-Delft/Deltares)
14.55- 15.10 Does event-based verification lead to different results from equal-interval verification? (PDF) Schalk Jan van Andel (IHE-Delft)
15.10- 15.25 Confidence in flood warning system and the value of ensemble forecasts (PDF) Vincent Boucher (Université Laval)
15.25- 16.00 Recap (Louise Arnal, University of Reading/ECMWF and Micha Werner, IHE-Delft/Deltares) & Discussion
Poster Session 2 – 20 posters (with drinks)
16.00- 17.30 See list of posters below
Play the
Hepex-Game: Pathways to running a flood forecasting centre – An adventure game, by Louise Arnal et al.
19.30: Dinner – Clyde hotel

Day 3:
8 February 2018 (Thursday)

8.30 – 9.00: Coffee
Session 6 – Seasonal streamflow forecasting
Chair: Fredrik Wetterhall (ECMWF)
09.00- 09.20 Skill sensitivity in Europe and site-specific diagnostics based on catchment characteristics (Invited) (PDF)
Louise Crochemore (SMHI)
09.20- 09.35 Improving seasonal prediction of UK winter streamflow (PDF) Shaun Harrigan (CEH)
09.35- 09.50 The operational seasonal streamflow forecasting service for Australia: assessment and communication of forecast quality at the national scale (PDF) Daehyok Shin (DH) (Bureau of Meteorology)
09.50- 10.30 Hydrologic models to support decision making in the Murray Darling Basin (Keynote)
Matthew Bethune (Murray-Darling Basin Authority)
10:30 – 11:15: Coffee break
Session 7 – Operational and hydrometeorological forecasting services
Chair: Aizhong Ye (Beijing Normal University)
11.15- 11.35 Current status of the operational multi-model ensemble prediction system and climate service activities at the APEC Climate Center (Invited) (PDF)
Young-Mi Min (APCC)
11.35- 11.50 Opportunities and challenges in delivering water availability forecasts: sharing the Australian experience (PDF) Narendra Tuteja (Bureau of Meteorology)
11.50- 12.05 An operational pan-European seasonal hydro-climatic forecasting service (PDF) Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI)
12.05- 12.20 Improving operational decision making and services: collaboration in science, systems and communication (PDF) Charlie Pilling (UK Met Office)
12:20 – 13:30: Lunch break
Session 8 – Applications of ensemble prediction: hydropower and reservoir operations
Chair: James Bennett (CSIRO)
13.30- 13.50 Hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in Switzerland: using streamflow forecasts to improve hydropower reservoir operations (Invited) (PDF)
Samuel Monhart (ETH/WSL)
13.50- 14.05 Adjustment of reservoir operating rules using ensemble streamflow forecasts (PDF) Hae Na Yoon (Seoul National University)
14.05- 14.20 Use of artificial neural networks in short-term streamflow forecasting for the Snowy Mountains scheme (PDF) Thomas Chubb (Snowy Hydro)
14.20- 14.35 A first use case of operational ensemble discharge forecasts for hydropower production on the Rhone River: evaluation of several post-processing methods (PDF) Sabrina Celie (Compagnie Nationale du Rhône)
14.35- 14.50 Sensitivity of power system operations to water availability: insight for designing ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts (PDF) Nathalie Voisin (PNNL)
14:50 – 15:20: Coffee break
15.20- 16.50 Plenary discussion: What’s next in hydrological ensemble prediction? Led by Maria-Helena Ramos (IRSTEA) & Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI)
16.50 – 17.00: Workshop close

9 February 2018 (Friday)

09.30 – 17.00: Tour of BoM National Forecast Centre and Field trip to Melbourne Water Infrastructure

Please contact us if you wish to attend (no fees)


List of posters:

Presenting author Title
Anctil, François On The Incidence Of Meteorological And Hydrological Processors: Effect Of Resolution And Reliability Of Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts
Anctil, François A Data Assimilation Scheme To Foster Model Cooperation Within A Hydrological Multimodel Ensemble
Arnal, Louise The 2013/14 Thames Basin Floods: Do Improved Meteorological Forecasts Lead To More Skilful Hydrological Forecasts At Seasonal Timescales?
Bennett, James Long-range Streamflow Forecasts in Drylands
Bretreger, David Assimilating P-Band Microwave Soil Moisture Observations To Improve Root Zone Soil Moisture Estimation
Crochemore, Louise How Much Can Continental Hydrological Forecasting Services Be Benefited From High-Resolution NWP Systems?
Emerton, Rebecca Elizabeth Glofas-Seasonal: An Operational Seasonal Global Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting System
Fakhruddin, Bapon Medium Range Ensemble Flood Forecasting In Waikato River Basin, New Zealand
Frost, Andrew Evaluation Of Fine-Scale Ensemble Seasonal Soil Moisture And Evapotranspiration Forecasts For The Sydney Region
Hapuarachchi, Prasantha Developing ensemble 7-day streamflow forecasting service for Australia
Hegdahl, Trine Jahr Can Improved Meteorological Forecasts Improve The Flood Forecasts? A Case Study Of Selected Floods In Norway, 2013 To 2015
Hou, Jiawei Potential For Enhanced Flow Forecasting Through Satellite-Based River Gauging
Li, Wentao A Comparison Of Statistical Post-Processing Methods For Short- To Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts
Li, Yuan Soil Moisture Assimilation For Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
Marshall, Lucy Advancing Our Understanding Of Data Assimilation For Hydrologic Predictions In Changing Catchments
Meucci, Alberto Wind And Wave Climate: Design Sea State From Ensemble Forecasts
Monhart, Samuel Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions In Switzerland: The Influence Of Pre- And Post-Processing On The Forecast Performance In Different Alpine Catchments
Pauwels, Valentijn Estimation Of The Observation Bias For Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Using A Bias-Aware Kalman Filter: Validation Using Different Models
Peredo-Ramirez, Daniela Assessment of the 2016 flood event on the Seine and Loire river basins using ensemble forecasts
Perraud, Jean-Michel A Software Ecosystem For End-To-End Hydrological Ensemble Modelling Workflows
Ramos, MH Does Hepex Need A New Cutting Edge?
Robertson, David How can ensemble streamflow forecasts inform decisions on the management of environmental flows?
Schepen, Andrew The HEPEX Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Intercomparison Project
Seo, Seung Beom Improvement Of Drought Outlook Using A Bayesian Inference Approach
Shrestha, Durga Lal Schaake Shuffle: Does It Work For All Forecasts?
Smith, Adam Development Of A Pilot Forecast Service For Extended Lead Time Flood Forecasts For The Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley
Song, Yong A Gibbs Sampler Bayesian Joint Probability Model
Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet Assimilation Of Grace Water Storage And Smos/Smap Soil Moisture Retreivals Into Cable Using Particle Smoother
Tsanis, Ioannis Assessment Of The Probabilistic Forecasting Of The European Flood Awareness System
Velasco-Forero, Carlos Seamless Rainfall: A Multi-Scale Ensemble Rainfall Forecast Generator
Walker, Jeffrey Diagnostic Assessment Of Localized Flood Flow Behaviour
Weerts, Albrecht RWsOS: clustered multi-hazard early warning in the Netherlands
Weerts, Albrecht Inter-comparison experiment of data assimilation by neural networks and variational state estimation for different hydrological model structures
Weerts, Albrecht GENRE: A Method To Extend Gridded Precipitation Climatology Datasets In Near Real-Time For Hydrological Forecasting Purposes
Werner, Micha Functionality And Relevance Of Hydrological Models In Multi-Model And Multi-Forcing Ensembles From A Bayesian Perspective – A Study On The Magdalena-Cauca Macro-Basin, Colombia
Wood, Andy Improving ensemble forecasts in Watersheds with seasonal snowpack through data assimilation of streamflow
Wood, Andy Watershed-Oriented Climate Forecast Products For Hydrologic Forecasters And Water Managers
Ye, Aizhong The Contribution Of Ensemble Streamflow Forecast To Water Resources Optimization Scheduling
Zhang, Xuejun Operational Drought Forecasting And Skill Assessment Over China
Zsoter, Ervin The Impact Of Land Data Assimilation On Global River Discharge Simulations

General guidelines:

  • Orals: Oral presentations will be of 15 min (12 min of presentation + 3 min of questions), except presentations of invited speakers, which will be of 20 min (17 min of presentation + 3 min of questions).
  • Poster: The poster boards will accommodate A0 size portrait or landscape  posters.

Workshop support funding:




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